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NFL Futures - Win Totals
This system can now help you with predicting win totals for all NFL teams ...
As this system has been designed around a deterministic model that predicts the outcome of games based on a number of factors, we have made use of this data to run a game-by-game simulation of all weeks of the upcoming regular season. The predicted outcome (generated now in the preseason) of each of these games will likely be less accurate as the weeks of the season go on, given a wide variety of factors contribute to our prediction model. Things like changes in a team’s power rating, injuries and various other game-time factors cannot be accounted for in the preseason for games that take place weeks / months away. This is the nature of NFL Futures when it comes to predicting overall regular season win totals.
With that in mind, we have published our predicted win totals for this upcoming season at our NFL Futures page. Interestingly enough, we find our predicted totals are quite close to the consensus totals published by the Vegas sportsbooks below:
Our system updates the predicted win totals each day in the event any of the factors it uses changes over time, but as of now there are few large differences between our system and the win total numbers Vegas has - with a few notable exceptions (a half game or more difference):
We start off with a tough one to call. On one hand, the Ravens have an extremely favorable first 6 games, facing opponents who had a combined sub-.400 winning percentage last season. Not surprisingly, the Ravens have the 6th easiest strength of schedule this season. The Ravens signed top-tier edge rusher Trey Hendrickson away from division rival Cincinnati. However, as much as new head coach Jesse Minter looks to be a solid choice given his past successes, this is Minter's very first season as an NFL head coach. During the middle part of the season, the Ravens face a gauntlet of five teams in a row that all made the playoffs last season. The biggest concern is the rebuilding at the offensive line. The Ravens will have 3 new starters on the O line and the center position has had three different players in the running to start at that spot during the preseason. Advising under 11.5
Philly is dealing with real structural turnover: new OC Sean Mannion (their fifth different OC in five years), the loss of longtime O-line coach Jeff Stoutland, and the trade of A.J. Brown to New England. That's a lot of continuity lost off an 11-6 team, and continuity/scheme stability tends to matter more than raw talent retention in our models. Advising under 10.5
KC went 6-11 in 2025 with their lowest win total since 2012, largely due to Mahomes' season-ending ACL injury and a genuinely thin receiving corps. Some independent models have them as low as 8-9 wins even with Mahomes healthy, given defensive regression and age creeping into the core. Vegas at 10.5 looks like it's pricing in name recognition more than current roster quality. Advising under 10.5
Buffalo quieted critics by finishing 12-5 in 2025. Josh Allen continues to carry a high offensive floor to the point where 11 wins is not a stretch. Advising over 10.5
Jordan Love continues to improve and his offensive weapons are all coming back healthy. It is worth noting that our model's power rating of the Packers was derived with the knowledge that Micah Parsons would be out till mid-October and GB struggled in games without him last year. So we are less confident about our win total given that but still advising over 9.5
The Jags won 13 games last year and Trevor Lawrence seemed to get better as the season went on and their defense is arguably in the top 5. Multiple independent outlets are "over" bettors on Jacksonville specifically because Vegas seems to still be pricing in skepticism from their pre-2025 struggles. Advising over 8.5
Mike Tomlin and his penchant for never finishing worse than a .500 win record is gone. With the Bengals and Ravens looking to post 10+ win seasons along with Aaron Rogers' inability to escape the rush, and the fact that they went 7-3 in one-score games last year (which is bound to regress) means the win total floor is dangerously low. Advising under 8.5
The Colts were on an absolute tear last season, going 8-2 before losing Daniel Jones for the season and dropping their last 7 games in a row. Jones is now signed long-term and the schedule is considered favorable, which supports the our number. Advising over 7.5
The Commanders won 5 games last season but in fairness, Jayden Daniels had injuries in week 2 (knee), week 7 (hamstring) and in week 9 (elbow) ended his season. Daniels is healthy, but their schedule is a bit tougher than last season and the impact of the season ending injury to Daniel's most important lineman Laremy Tunsil cannot be overstated. This margin is close. Advising under 7.5
The Panthers went 8-9 last season. And there were some promising signs from them at certain points - like almost beating the Rams in the first round of the playoffs despite being 10 point underdogs in that game. The difference in win totals here is likely due to that fact that algorithmic platforms like ours strip away offseason optimism to evaluate historical efficiency baselines. If you look at their schedule this year, it's tough to find any games you'd be confident they'd win handily. This is notably the largest win total differential between Vegas and Football Sharps. Advising under 7.5
New coaching staff and Cam Ward looking to take the next step forward bodes well for the Vegas number, but the Titans won only 3 games last year and are in a division with 3 teams that will likely beat them every time. Advising under 6.5
It's clear this team is not trying to "win it all" this year as part-owner Tom Brady has been emphatic that believes rookie QBs are pushed to hard to early in today's NFL. Kirk Cousins will start, but only until the season gets to a point where the Raiders admit it's time to bring in rookie Fernando Mendoza. That's a fair amount of uncertainty at the most important position and the Raiders are in a division with 3 teams all projected to win over 9 games. Advising under 6.5
The Cardinals went 3-14, lost their final 9 games last season and currently face a much tougher than average schedule. With the change from Kyler Murray to Jacoby Brissett at QB, the Cardinals offense may actually gain some continuity. But looking at their schedule, it is tough to find more than 4 wins. Advising over 3.5 - but not thrilled about it.
It's hard to argue with Vegas here. With the 7-10 collapse last year, the firing of their GM, the benching of Tua Tagovailoa at QB, the Dolphins find themselves in new territory with Malik Willis as the new starting QB, no big name wide receivers and a defense that ranked 29th in points and total yards allowed. Advising over 3.5 - but also not excited about this one either.
Betting against sportsbooks means finding even the smallest of edges to capitalize on and we have just covered a few of them when it comes to NFL win totals for this upcoming season. As win totals are available to be wagered on not just before the season starts, but as the season progresses, be sure to check back to our NFL Futures page as these totals will dynamically update with new data.
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Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIA.J. BrownWR · NEPatrick MahomesQB · KCJordan LoveQB · GBJoshua AllenQB · BUFKirk CousinsQB · LVAaron RodgersQB · PITTua TagovailoaQB · ATLMicah ParsonsDL · GBTrevor LawrenceQB · JAXCameron WardQB · TENDaniel JonesQB · INDJayden DanielsQB · WSHKyler MurrayQB · MINMalik WillisQB · MIAFernando MendozaQB · LV