Football, Math and Safe Betting
What can Football Sharps do for you?
Sportsbetting is notoriously difficult and there are many reasons for that. Start with the fact that the math is against us. Every bet requires you to risk slightly more than you can gain, so you must do better than winning half the time to break even (52.4% to be exact). See our Intro page for more specifics on this concept. Basically, this is the house’s edge just like the large majority of all games in a casino (poker excluded), where the house always has a slightly better chance than you to win. The sportsbooks that set the lines and odds do so in a way that consistently gets people to bet almost evenly on both sides of a given game, locking in their profit. This is why you see points spreads change as the week of betting goes on.
The Football Sharps system was built to determine what the point spread on any given NFL game will be, before the lines are even published by the sportsbooks. It uses its own independent set of algorithms and data sources to arrive at the point differential between two teams - using a great deal of factors and external data sources. And most of the time, the spread our system arrives at is quite close to the published lines from the major sportsbooks. But not always. And when the gap between our spread and the sportsbooks' spread are far enough apart, our system identifies that game as a wagering opportunity. The wider the gap, the higher the “star rating” and the higher percentage of bankroll that should be wagered. Our system also adjusts wager amounts based on 3 machine learning models that uses the past 25+ years of NFL data.
Bankroll management is another critical component of this system - with no bet ever exceeding 5% of your total bankroll. This site will allow you to select any (or all) of the system’s recommended wagers and safely “place” them yourself here, against your own synthetic bankroll. It’s a realistic (and fun) way to test real-life betting conditions without risking actual cash. Or you can also use this site to track the bets you are making on the outside.
For anyone thinking of betting money on sports without doing the necessary research, they need to understand that casual sports betting should be viewed strictly as paid entertainment, not a viable source of income (much like playing table games in a casino vs. the house). Over 95% of sports bettors lose money in the long run and thus there is a notable risk of loss if you attempt to gamble professionally without statistical understanding and principals of bankroll management. It's the hard truth which many don't love to hear because it is so incredibly fun to watch and wager on NFL games.
The point here is that it’s math that gives you the best chance to win in the end. Find the best opportunity, find the best line available and then wager the appropriate amount. This system was tested with strong success last season. Unlike most sites you see out there that want you to immediately pay for "picks", this system not only delivers betting recommendations, but also provides an understanding of how the picks are arrived at and specifies wager amounts that are aggressive enough to grow your bankroll without ever putting a significant amount of it at risk.
Becoming educated and prepared before you wager is not only common sense, it’s what differentiates the “sharp” from the “square”. Who would you rather be?